What happens if the climate talks fail? Foresight from the timeline of Deputy Executive Secretary Bertillon (ca. 2080)

timcadman

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Chapter III

In the disastrous first decades of the new millennium, the former United States had imposed its pax Americana across the world with unstoppable fervour, and almost every possible energy source had been ruthlessly secured in a series of regional wars. The practice of converting local currencies to the US dollar had massively expanded the US economy. When The Changes hit, a mass of insurance claims created an on-going recession and the sprawling economy never really recovered. The United Nations States of the US – UNSUS – still had seventy per cent of the world’s energy resources, but the costs of maintaining infrastructure in the worsening climate conditions exerted never-ending cost pressures. It was shrinking back to the US, South America, Canada and Mexico. Russia was busy reasserting its own regional dominance. China starved and India died of thirst. The world’s remaining independent nation-states were fighting it out amongst…

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Taking stock of week one of COP 23

timcadman

imageIt is recommended that this article be prefaced by reading COP 23: Gearing up for another climate talkfest – agenda items of note

The first week of COP 23 has come to an end and the negotiations will pick up pace (or not) as the ministers start arriving in preparation for the so-called ‘high-level segment’ of the talks. So far, they have been somewhat lacklustre.

The report from the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement mid-week, the main forum for progressing negotiations, was not met with a particularly positive response from Parties – whether they were wanting to slow things down (being fossil fuel producing countries), or speed things up (being small island states threatened with inundation).

Progress on Article 6, relating to measures for stopping (mitigating) climate change via co-operative approaches between countries (6.2); market mechanisms for sustainable development (6.4); and non-market mechanisms (6.8) – is…

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